以海口市为研究对象，分析 2010—2020 年土地利用 / 土地覆盖（LULC）数据和生态系统服务价值的变化，采用 PLUS 模型和当量因子法模拟 2035 年自然发展（BAU）、生态保护（EC）和经济发展（ED）3 种情景下生态系统服务价值的时空变化特征，探究不同土地利用模式对生态系统服务价值的影响。结果表明：海口市土地利用类型以林地和旱地占比最高，生态系统服务结构相对稳定；受建设用地增加影响，水文调节和水资源供给服务功能下降幅度最大，表明 LULC 变化与生态系统服务价值变化密切相关；EC 情景下，各项生态系统服务均得到改善，LULC 的结构调整尤其是提高湿地占比，显著改善区域整体生态系统服务。

Using Haikou City as the research object, this paper analyzed the changes in land use and ecosystem service value from 2010 to 2020, and employed the PLUS model and the equivalent factor method to simulate the spatial and temporal characteristics of ecosystem service value under three scenarios of natural development (BAU), ecological conservation (EC), and economic development (ED) in 2035, and explored the impacts of different land use patterns on ecosystem service value. The results showed that land use types in Haikou City had the highest proportion of forested land and dry land, and the structure of ecosystem services was relatively stable. Hydrological regulation and water resource provisioning services declined the most under the influence of the increase of construction land, indicating that the change of LULC was closely related to the change of ecosystem service value. All ecosystem services improved under the EC scenario, and the structural adjustments of LULC, especially the increase of wetland proportion, significantly improved the overall ecosystem services in the region.

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海南省自然科学基金项目（编号：722QN288）；海南省高等学校教育教学改革研究资助项目（编号：Hnjg2024-10）；海南大学教育教学改革研究项目（编号：hdjy2420）；海南大学课程思政教育专项（编号：hdsz2205）；海南大学校级完全学分制改革研究项目（编号：hdxfz2204）